Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro continues to wield significant political influence despite being convicted and sentenced to 27 years and three months in prison over attempted coup charges, experts and political observers say.

Bolsonaro, under house arrest and in poor health, did not attend the Supreme Court hearings. However, public support for the far-right leader remains strong, with opinion polls showing a deeply divided society. A Datafolha survey in August found 48% of Brazilians wanted him imprisoned, while 46% favored keeping him free.

Despite legal setbacks, Bolsonaro’s base remains active, with tens of thousands demonstrating across Brazil on Independence Day earlier this month. “Ideals are not killed, ideals are not arrested,” said Luiz Niemeyer, a Bolsonaro supporter in Rio de Janeiro. Analysts suggest that even behind bars, Bolsonaro could shape the 2026 presidential election by influencing which candidates carry his coalition’s banner.

Evangelical allies and lawmakers are advocating for amnesty to restore his political rights before 2030. Meanwhile, right-wing leaders such as Sao Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Parana Governor Ratinho Junior are being considered as potential pro-Bolsonaro candidates. Bolsonaro’s inner circle, including his sons, remains central in deciding the movement’s future leadership.

Experts describe the situation as “Bolsonarism 2.0,” a phase in which the far-right movement consolidates and strengthens beyond Bolsonaro himself. Sociologist Esther Solano noted, “The movement is strong enough to outlive him, with emerging leaders preparing to continue his conservative agenda.”

Observers say that although President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is regaining popularity, Bolsonaro’s enduring influence underscores the deep polarization in Brazil and signals that his political ideology will continue to shape the country’s politics in the coming years.